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The New Rift

This post by Peter Berkman gets closest to the meat of our collective concerns over the Oculus sale to Facebook. John Carmack even responded in the comments, while Palmer took to reddit. Raph Koster and Blair McIntyre do pretty good analyses in their own rights, putting the pieces together.

Disclaimer: I know many of the people mentioned here and consider them friends. I’m sticking to only what is publicly revealed information. And I am of course happy for these individuals who are getting to work on dream projects and making lots of money as a side benefit.

Here are some collected facts that are out in the open:

1. Industry Legends John Carmack and Michael Abrash have each talked publicly about wanting to build the Metaverse (of Snow Crash fame). I totally get what’s in this deal for them: build it with the right tech, the right people and at Facebook scale. Got to love the opportunity to realize that dream.

2. Cory Ondrejka (kick-ass VP of Mobile at Facebook) was formerly CTO of LindenLab/Second Life. He’s built a slightly less scalable version of the Metaverse already. Notice a “Mark, Chris and Cory” named in Palmer’s blog post. I have no doubt they’re completely sincere about wanting to see VR succeed in its own right.

3. Peter is also right in assuming that Oculus will add real gaze tracking. Palmer hints (skip to just before 19:00) about it here. Oculus is not alone, I expect. While there are many patents (of various quality) on this, there are still many viable ways to determine a user’s gaze, and many reasons to do so. Facebook has even more on its wishlist, I bet, beyond the basics of providing better visuals or more Natural UI.

4. Companies like Tobii make their living today by (effectively) enabling mind-reading via a user’s gaze. Your supermarket shelves were probably arranged with this kind of tech strapped to willing users. Your favorite website’s layout was probably tested using this tech in a lab. Just imagine the power of knowing what everyone is looking at and why, of being able to read subtle emotion in the face, including those micro-expressions that always reveal the truth.

5. Blair is also right that Zuckerberg’s AR long-term vision isn’t a typo. For all the arguments about VR vs. AR vs. camera-based vs. see-through being better for this or that, the bottom line is that VR sucks for mobile. That’s based purely on the old “wall meets face” principle, if not the geek factor of walking around talking to people with a brick over your eyes.

Facebook needs to win on mobile. Yes, it’ll take a few years just to get consumer-friendly seated VR right. But when Oculus eventually gets their glasses down to sunglass size and adds forward-facing cameras that mix real and virtual, then watch out[side]. Here’s the key part of Zuckerberg’s quote again:

But this is just the start. After games, we’re going to make Oculus a platform for many other experiences. Imagine enjoying a courtside seat at a game, studying in a classroom of students and teachers all over the world or consulting with a doctor face-to-face — just by putting on goggles in your home.

This is really a new communication platform. By feeling truly present, you can share unbounded spaces and experiences with the people in your life. Imagine sharing not just moments with your friends online, but entire experiences and adventures.These are just some of the potential uses. By working with developers and partners across the industry, together we can build many more.

One day, we believe this kind of immersive, augmented reality will become a part of daily life for billions of people. [emphasis mine]

6. I’ve heard Oculus folks also talk about telepresence as one of the killer apps for VR too, esp. when one can solve the “eye gaze” problem. You’ve probably experienced that in crappy modern video chat, which is generally how I’d imagine women feel when you stare at their chests. Interestingly, Cory’s old boss from Linden, Philip Rosedale, has announced he’s working on the eye gaze problem in his new startup too, and using some cool software called FaceShift to get a jump on the harder problems there.

[For full disclosure, I did some work on avatar-based telepresence as well, but I wasn't entirely satisfied with the result. FWIW, I found a better approach, which works with no hardware sitting on your face.]

7. Finally, Facebook makes its money by selling its users. Let’s not be coy. It’s a lot of money and a lot of users. To be fair, is it really any worse than how NBC offers up its users to advertisers (since before I was born)? Well, no and yes. It’s the same “ad, ad” world as before. We learn by age four to distrust the loud man on the TV. But the key difference is that NBC can’t see you, can’t really know your thoughts, except via gross statistics (think Neilsen ratings). Facebook really wants to know you, individually, and forever.

Now, companies like Facebook and Google provide immensely desirable services for free too, more so than NBC IMO. The problem lies in the concept of “informed consent.” Both tech companies still suck at the human stuff IMO, esp. in terms of giving users clear information up front to make that decision wisely, and then giving full control of their data after. It’s still mostly one-sided today, and it has to change.

Ideally, they’d start to emulate companies who’ve adopted an obsessive customer focus. It’s not about what people will tolerate, but what they really need. Earning our trust can’t be an afterthought or a win by attrition.

[for a positive comparison, TV's "Neilsen families" give truly informed consent and the company promises not to market to them as well.]

So we come back to Peter’s insightful post. The problem with the Oculus sale is not that we all supported Palmer’s fortuitous kickstarter and got no share of the spoils. I got the product I ordered, still sitting in its box, alas. It’s not that he and Brendan Iribe “sold out” the indie gaming dream for big bucks. There are plenty of reasons to seek this level of protection and financial support in the light of Sony (and others) gearing up for a big fight. Gamers should be happy to have more viable options to choose from at the lowest prices.

Hell, I joined the so-called “evil empire” in 2008 to try to use their massive scale to do some good in the world, so who am I to judge? (jury is still out on my contributions, fwiw)

No. The heart of the problem is that VR is the most powerful means ever invented to pipe external ideas into your internal world. It’s pushing remote-controlled information almost directly into your brain via every sense possible. Consider that people believe a lot of crap they can’t even see. You’ll believe this crap on so many levels. That’s why it’s called virtual reality, ok? It’s as close to real as it gets, while still being entirely artificial.

The Facebook purchase highlights the reverse of that flow as well, reminding us that VR may become one of the best ways to pipe your internal world out — via data mining, classification and onto untold dissemination. That’s actually one of the reasons I got into the field, 20 years ago: to more easily tell stories that were rattling around my brain that would have taken millions of dollars and hundreds of people to produce as movies or games. But it has a dark side too, like when the information is sucked out of us without our informed consent or control.

Just think what the headlines would have said last week if Facebook had instead bought a brain-sensing startup like Emotiv, or invested in fMRI brain scanning tech to extract your thoughts. See what I’m talking about? VR doesn’t work quite the same way as those, but it gets to the same place in the end. The protective walls between you and the world come down in favor of more bandwidth in and out.

So closing that loop, even crafting individually designated virtual worlds using all of your private information, Facebook will own the most potent means available, short of mind-control drugs, to read and write to your private inner world, your thoughts, your actions, your dreams. It can free you, or it can enslave you.

What they do with it is entirely up to them (plus certain market and “other” forces). And if that doesn’t scare you, at least a little, then you may already be sold.

 

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Bing Maps Preview Arrives

Big Congrats to the teams in Bellevue, Sunnyvale, Boulder, Graz and more.

What you’re seeing here is the product of 10 years of effort, in many ways, and represents a turnaround and partial recovery from one of Ballmer’s biggest mistakes. He famously handed most of the company’s mapping business to Nokia, losing many smart minds and multiple years of effort in the process.

But a core group remained, and with the company’s renewed support were able to build this as a first step to catching up. And it’s a very admirable step. Nice work!

From Bing Maps Preview Arrives on Windows 8.1 – Search Blog.

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Fukushima

This is the thing about nuclear power. It doesn’t just go away when we’re not looking.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/charles-perrow/fukushima-forever_b_3941589.html?utm_hp_ref=science&ir=Science

Long story short, fuel rods are waiting to be removed to a slightly safer location. Company doing the removal is probably going bankrupt and the government is probably incompetent. If the rods touch, here comes Zuul. We might not have a Tokyo anymore. And in the meantime, cesium detectors might be a useful addition to sushi bars, especially the good ones that fly in their fish…

If you’re thinking, “hey, what if there’s an earthquake somewhere near where I live and the same thing happens again?”

Good thinking! Here’s a handy map of nuclear plants and earthquake zones:

http://maptd.com/map/earthquake_activity_vs_nuclear_power_plants/

Which makes me think that all those people prepping their little post apocalyptic shelters against evil bandits (after the downfall of civilization, or Obama’s third term) might want to rethink their security plans.

If civilization goes down, so do the people maintaining these nuclear plants. So do the deliveries of fuel to keep the water pumps running. We’d be relying on plants whose fundamental safety plans may be based on the assumption of everything else working just fine.

Personally, I’d be more comfortable with nuclear power if the plants could demonstrate that they’d be the last ones standing (and still generating power) after any number of catastrophes outside.

Otherwise, we might as well draw a map of every nuclear plant in the world being a massive emitter of radiation at once and note the Extinction Level Event we built to power your son’s night light.

Or, you know, we could fix it. We have plenty of time and ample cause for action.

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Microsoft shows off WebGL for IE11

This is awesome news.

Microsoft shows off WebGL, touch-capable features in Internet Explorer 11 | Ars Technica.

As Will Wright noted earlier about a different “reversal,” it’s always a good thing when the world’s largest software company actively listens to its users and what they want.

Great things will happen as a result.

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My AWE 2013 Talk is Online

I had to cut out most of the jokes due to the 15 minute time limit, but I thought I at least got to the main points and finished right on the nose. What do you think?

Slides are here

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Google to buy Waze for $1.3 billion

If true, this makes Google pretty much unstoppable in maps, IMO, and Navteq increasingly irrelevant. Waze nailed crowd-sourced routing and traffic, and I imagine could translate well to other similar domains.

Congrats to Di-Ann and the team.

Google to buy Waze for $1.3 billion to bolster its maps lead, says Israeli newspaper | The Verge.

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Andrew Scott Reiss

My heart goes out to Andrew’s family, friends and co-workers.

Oculus VR co-founder, 33, killed by speeding car | Tech Culture – CNET News.

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Jobs

Just a quick note for those who follow my blog. I will try to post more often now that I’ve emerged in my new role at Syntertainment as co-founder, CTO/CPO and interim CEO. Will is naturally Chief Creative Officer.

In my previous stint at Amazon, I was limited in what I could speak about publicly, for company PR reasons. Ironically, my project (next gen tablet shopping experiences) was not nearly as secretive as my work at Microsoft had been. But then again, no one at Amazon tried to fire me for speaking my mind… You’ll hopefully see some of those cool projects announced by their respective owners.

Mostly, I wanted to open an invite for people who know what kind of things I love to work on to come join us at Syntertainment. We’re looking for a few more superstars to join the early team, with the perks and challenges that entails.

What can I say? We’re developing an entirely new kind of game, which will add some new ways of thinking about the world; and like SimCity and The Sims, likely inspire an entire genre after the fact. It’s a unique opportunity full of fun and adventure, with challenges few dare to take on.

We won’t be providing more details publicly yet, but for those who love the startup life, now is the best time to make the leap and effectively be your own boss on an equally self-motivated team.

I’m personally having a blast.

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Gone to Plaid

Well, I finally did it. I went and left a perfectly good corporate space ship for a tiny winnebago. I can honestly say that for the first time in at least a decade, I’m truly excited (not just enthusiastic) about what I’m working on.

I can’t yet say what this new startup is doing or even what it’s called, except to say that it’ll be a whole new kind of game, developed with some of the people I most respect and admire in the industry.

In fact, it’s a chance to work with one person in particular that I’ve wanted to work with for over 20 years, to be a co-founder, CTO, and even interim CEO while we find just the right person to manage the business side of things long-term.

The design side is already well-covered. We need a few more world-class technologists to join up next.

 

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Brain Implant Controls Robotic Arm

We may have seen the monkey controlling a robotic arm, but here it is in human trials with much more impressive results. Researchers were able to train the system by having the participant think about moving her arm. With several months of training, her motions were fluid and precise (see video below). Future improvements would make the system more tolerable to brain tissue and wireless, paving the way for those direct brain/machine interfaces we’ve imagined.

Still, it requires surgery. Gives new meaning to “you are the controller,” doesn’t it?

Mind over matter helps paralysed woman control robotic arm | Science | The Guardian.



 

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