Slight Glitch
…in which all of my personal/political blog entries wound up on this site.
All fixes and upgrades are now complete, and the universes are separate once again.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled technology.
Entries Tagged as 'Articles'
Now See Live 3D Worlds on Your Pinkie
We’re starting to see a new crop of "Mobile 3D" solutions hit the market. So let’s take a minute to see what’s up, what’s coming, and what’s still hype.
For anyone who read the "Second Life on iPhone" stories or saw some demo video, the key take away is that the 3D graphics are not being rendered on the iPhone itself. It’s being rendered on a beefy server somewhere else and delivered essentially as compressed video.
Turning 2D Photos into First Rate 3D Experiences
Google Earth Blog: Look Around with Google Panoramio
Frank Taylor has the news about Google’s Panoramio geo/photo/sharing site adding a more "Photosynth-like" feature that lets you navigate from 2D photo to 2D photo based on their computed areas of overlap. In essence, the software seems to figure out if/where two photos overlap, then computes the viewing transformation to go from each photo to the every overlapped match, and then does ye old cross-fade warp (a simple trapezoidal stretch) when you select some source and destination combo to navigate around.
The effect is somewhat similar to Photosynth, in that you can navigate a well-covered real-world scene based purely on existing 2D photos. The downside is very similar to Photosynth — the transformations are still lacking something that’s hard to pin down. Each photo is still 2D, and the warping or flying around isn’t enough to preserve the implied 3D perspective you get when you view a photo from the exact angle it was taken. Move a little to either side and the 3D effect diminishes, while disorientation increases rapidly. Both apps try to minimize the downside by fading a picture out when it gets too far off base, leaving lots of missing information temporally and spatially.
The Singularity is Nigh
IEEE Spectrum: Special Report: The Singularity
I’ll post more when I get a second, but it’ll take some time to digest.
For what it’s worth, my present take on the Singularity is a cross of Vinge’s and something Stoss said at a WorldCon party (or elsewhere), and Kurzweil, despite some inherent contradictions:
1. The future beyond a singularity is fundamentally unknowable. That’s the whole point. If we can accurately describe what’s past a so-called singularity, then it’s just your basic run-of-the-mill evolution, revolution or "disruptive" sea-change, which happen all the time.
2. People are good at extrapolating linearly, not exponentially. We can predict a few years out, but after that, reality diverges wildly from our naturally limited mental models.
3. We’ve already gone through multiple "singularities" throughout history, though perhaps increasing in frequency. Singularities are never the end of anything, but a new platform on which to complain about our current ways of life and ponder the color of the pasture on the far side of the next singularity.
Before their introduction, could people have predicted how the world would change with Writing? Or Computers? Or Corporations? Could they have even predicted the invention itself? If not, then these may also be singularities, points in history that we can only understand by looking back, not forward, like the approaching event horizon of a black hole.
That is not to say that some visionaries don’t imagine a world past that event horizon or see the event coming. But it’s all speculation, cautionary or wishful fiction at best.
Even the inventor of the mechanical computer, beyond genius for his day, could not have predicted word processors, virtual reality, AI, or even the CAD software that would have unquestionably helped design his mechanical computer.
One could argue that the One True Singularity will occur only when we (our heirs or errs) become smart enough to see through to the future beyond, i.e., the real Singularity is the last Singularity we will ever know.
We are All Futurists
Key to All Optical Illusions Discovered | LiveScience
Researcher Mark Changizi of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York says it starts with a neural lag that most everyone experiences while awake. When light hits your retina, about one-tenth of a second goes by before the brain translates the signal into a visual perception of the world. Scientists already knew about the lag, yet they have debated over exactly how we compensate, with one school of thought proposing our motor system somehow modifies our movements to offset the delay. Changizi now says it’s our visual system that has evolved to compensate for neural delays, generating images of what will occur one-tenth of a second into the future. That foresight keeps our view of the world in the present. It gives you enough heads up to catch a fly ball (instead of getting socked in the face) and maneuver smoothly through a crowd. His research on this topic is detailed in the May/June issue of the journal Cognitive Science.
It makes perfect sense for those of us who’ve done work compensating for lag in networked 3D worlds. To counter the lag, the client usually predicts the motion of key objects a small way into the future. Those predictions can be wrong, in which case you have to correct or suffer the consequences. Even in video compression codecs, we exploit these properties to reduce file size.
In our visual system, those consequences may be the misperception of relative size of objects or of motion in perfectly static images. In a virtual world, it could be an avatar being in the wrong place or popping. In video codecs, guessing wrong can be more easily corrected during encoding, but at the cost of more bits to store the same information .
But it’s amazingly cool, assuming it’s true, that our visual systems can predict the future position of every "pixel" we see and do it well enough that we rarely if ever notice. That may indeed be an important cue for machine vision systems to adopt — predict and notice when the algorithmic prediction is wrong.
Of course, as some people will point out, we’re not actually "seeing" the future. It’s only our own image of what is likely to happen next, which can be wrong (in the case of these illusions). But it’s equally true to say that we don’t actually "see" the present either — only our internally processed and highly synthetic memory of our environment, which in some ways, can be far more incorrect than any low-level extrapolation.
Town Removes Itself From Street View
North Oaks tells Google Maps: Keep out - we mean it
Well, it had to happen sometime, but this seems to be a first. The town of North Oaks, MN, has completely excised itself from Google’s commercial panopticon, at least at the street level. I’ve argued before that Street View can and should remove people, cars, and other transient objects, not only to protect privacy, but to permit more sophisticated use of the data beyond the basic "snapshot in time."
But North Oaks didn’t stop at cars and people. They didn’t even want their streets in Street View.
Like Barbara Streisand, they apparently don’t want their digs visible to outsiders. Someone might use that information to gawk at their greatness, which would be embarrassing, if not outright dangerous, when outsiders so covet what these fine folks have worked so hard to establish and keep away from them…
But unlike Streisand, North Oaks can actually do something about it — their roads are considered "privately owned" and their posted "No Trespassing" signs prohibit people from driving through (no gate, mind you) to take photographs.
The town, of course, can’t do anything about the aerial and satellite views. They haven’t privatized the airspace above the town, at least not yet.
But my questions is this: lots of towns and cities are incorporated, and that corporation technically owns the roads. What’s to stop any "public" entity from ruling that their streets are "private" and therefore off-limits, at least to non-tax-payers?
Some towns and cities have already tried to ban public photography (for security and/or copyright reasons, the latter of which invariably translates to the profit motive). Why wouldn’t all of the most elite and effete communities wish to bolster their internal self-image by removing themselves from public view, like Brigadoon, but under their own ultimate control?
Non-existence, oddly enough, is the ultimate status symbol.
Of course, someone might do well to inform this town that, like those mysterious and blatant zones of pixelation in Google Earth and Maps we keep talking about, it’s the missing information that draws the most scrutiny.
What are they hiding, we wonder? Why are so many stories being written about the mysteries of North Oaks — the town that wasn’t there?
Much better to hide out in plain sight, I believe. Or, if you really want to keep people out, then put up a friggin gate, and a guard, and pay the actual market price for your insulation from the rest of society.
More Analysis of GE Plugin
Turns out, the API is extremely expansive, letting you control most functions of the app. And while that gives you many options for how to build your own web-based mashup of GE plus, what it also theoretically does is let you embed GE into other PC apps, e.g., games.
Here’s the thing — a plugin is just a DLL. There are some clever ways it can detect where it’s running (the API key for one). But I imagine you could now write a compiled application that simply pretended to be a browser, or you could embed the built-in IE Browser widget in a .Net Forms app. Calling the Google API functions via COM would make it simple to control, not via Javascript in this case, but actual compiled C++ if you wished.
You could load your 3D objects via Collada/KML, make them move via the API, and even see them interact with each other, if you maintain game state in your own code. But beyond that, it gets a little tricky. The cute Milk Truck example has my truck disappear or flicker when I jump high enough — this is most likely due to a near clipping plane being set without considering the dynamic object so close to the viewer. Expect lots of those sorts of issues to work around, as best you can.
But the one 3D mashup people may really clamor for is famed Second Earth or Google Earth meets Second Life mashup, as previously discussed. I think it would be much easier now, at least at the basic level.
Here’s the general outline:
Wrap the new GE DLL in your own pseudo-browser as above (preferably using a compiled language like C++). Combine that with the now-open SL client code, sitting "outside" and running the show. Intercept the calls in the SL client code that create objects. Add some export code such that these calls now save the geometry, prims and avatars for the most part, as Collada. Have GE re-load those into the world (preferably asynchronously).
It would be great if there was a more direct path to get gobs of 3D user data into GE, not yet from what I saw. You’d also intercept the regular SL spatial network updates from the server for objects and avatars and turn those into positional updates in GE. Better yet if you can grab the final (post-smoothed, extrapolated) positions, since you don’t want to see the latency, do you now?
Trickier would be handling the animation of avatar face, skin and joints, since it requires real-time bones and morph support to exist in GE, which I’m sure isn’t exposed. You’d be left with loading a replacement avatar geometry file every frame, which will absolutely be slow. You’d probably settle for avatars that can only move, but not animate.
In fact, the whole thing would be too slow for my tastes, but it’d most likely work as a proof of concept, or at least a cool demo.
I give it a month or two before someone shows a working prototype. Just putting a dozen or so avatars in the world this way would be pretty simple. But don’t try a thousand or more unless you’re a glutton for punishment.
It Goes Full Circle
Google diving into 3D mapping of oceans | Tech news blog - CNET News.com
Back in 1997, I left a fun job at Disney R&D making VR rides and interfaces to move back to Seattle at the behest of an old friend of mine. He had a "hot internet startup." Frankly, I wasn’t too keen on internet startups, even at that point — I figured the bubble would burst "any second" (it took three and a half more years) — but the promise was to use the "proceeds" from their "revolutionary" internet "load balancing" "product" to "spin-off" a "VR company," of which I’d be a "co-founder."
The quotes in that last sentence were all discovered after I’d made the move, which gives you an idea of how it turned out.
However, if things had actually turned out as planned, the first thing I was to do was to write the "Sea floor Visualizer," based on a demo that friend had written on the old Kubota 3D workstation, which I was going to greatly expand for the PC and the first real crop of 3D video cards. The idea was to let you virtually fly over underwater terrain, at least for a very small swath of sea floor, given lidar and other reconstructed "elevation" data. Cool stuff, and very cutting edge for 1997.
The Future of Virtual Worlds
So my friend Cory Ondrejka (co-creator of Second Life) started an interesting thread last week that I didn’t see covered as widely as it should. Here are his slides — alas I didn’t get to hear the narration that went with it, but I can guess.
What he seems to be describing is apparently not too far from what I’ve been writing about for a while. The part I’m still skeptical about is the life-logging, and probably because of my own preference for privacy. You’ll notice I don’t twitter. I have a hard time believing anyone would even care to follow what I do from moment to moment. And I think careful editing is the secret to any compelling narrative. I just don’t want to put gigabytes of sub-standard, often mundane, prose out there into the digital firmament.
But putting that aside, the germ (and/or gem) of what he’s saying, and the part I totally agree with, is this notion of a pervasive synthesis of augmented, mirror, and alternate realities — no need to distinguish between those arbitrary categories. Turns out, there’s an old word for this which I think we can now safely revive to summarize the intent:
magic
Up for Air
So I haven’t had much time over the last six months to blog, in case you hadn’t noticed. That’s going to change in the near future, I’m happy to say. I should have plenty of time once I’ve finished up my last bits of work on this Big Stage launch, a few weeks from now. And, in fact, I’d be interested in hearing from any of you about new and interesting things going on. Feel free to drop me a line and say hi. It’s about time I come up for air and survey the landscape.